Submitted by Pilbara Paddler on Wed, 07/07/2010 - 09:41.
For the last 26 years Lake Eyre has been a dry Australian tourist trap with nothing to offer.
Recently it has filled and broken its banks. Being in the Avon catchment area we are now guaranteed to have big water come August. YAY! (It takes a long time to flow from the desert to Northam!)
If you believed that then you may as well believe Juffy's predictions!
Seriously, it is full and I think if we all get a shovel we may help it flow our way!
More seriously, what were the Avon levels and local rain fall last time the lake filled?
Submitted by A paddler with no name... on Sun, 07/04/2010 - 11:19.
I'm thinking 0.4 I know it's low but I can't help but think that. 06 was a curse, if it's that low agin this year I won't be sliding into my Multisport.
Was there a cut off for guesses?? Currently I am winning with what now seems like a rather ambitious guess of 0.7 and I'm not keen to see my glory stolen by people basing their water level estimates on actual FORECASTS and DATA or anything other than just pure luck.
I have a vague memory of some rules floating around but not the patience to go looking for said rules . . . does anyone else remember?
If not, I am absolutely SURE that the cut off was the day after I made my guess. :-)
Edit: I see below that the Phantom picked 0.55. However since he has control over the site I'm not trusting that he hasn't changed that recently . . .
Submitted by Pilbara Paddler on Fri, 07/02/2010 - 21:41.
I see some of you have been using Elders recently and some even dismissing it.
I was watching this site in 2008 when we were all thinking it was going to be dry 6 weeks out.
Elders picked it spot on and the month of July was showing mostly green if not dark. And look what happened! We had to walk around Katrine!
My money stays with them and predict an average level of 0.9
Since I assume you're talking about me - I'm not dismissing Elders, I'm saying you have to read it as the data it's actually presenting instead of reading more into it.
Elders makes no predictions of rainfall totals, just the probability of rainfall events. A high likelihood of drizzle will show the same colour as the tail end of a cyclone. Also, as I said in the other thread, the central wheatbelt is a large area and rain somewhere in the region may not be where we want it.
Finally, predicting rainfall out to 28 days based on long-range pressure-system cycles is...an interesting concept. I think there are much better short-term models available, and Elders' 28-day forecast is as much wishful thinking as accurate forecasting.
Submitted by Winged Paddler on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:13.
Now that would be a really 'Big Call'.
I'm a never-say-never type of paddler, and I did my first Avon on about a weeks worth of training. However the chances of getting back for this year are slim.
1.5m off Cott. Oh sorry, Avon River. 0.7. You really should all convert to ocean paddling, the water is pretty reliable there. Except Juffy and Fiasco who aren't cool enough to paddle skis.
Well, I'm an optimist. And because I'm not paddling the water levels will probably be pretty good. (Although the one year I paddled was HUGE water, so not sure how that works).
I'm going to go with 1.15 - late rains will bump the river up to something decent, but they won't be sustained enough to affect BoM's 3-month party-pooper outlooks.
After voting above, use this comment thread to tell exactly what height you are picking. Once a particular height has 'gone', choose something else. Closest to the mark wins a prize of such unspeakable value, we can't possibly reveal yet what it might be.
Phantom picks 0.55. A disappointment to his diehard big water fans, I realise.
Lake Eyre Breaks Its Banks
For the last 26 years Lake Eyre has been a dry Australian tourist trap with nothing to offer.
Recently it has filled and broken its banks. Being in the Avon catchment area we are now guaranteed to have big water come August. YAY! (It takes a long time to flow from the desert to Northam!)
If you believed that then you may as well believe Juffy's predictions!
Seriously, it is full and I think if we all get a shovel we may help it flow our way!
More seriously, what were the Avon levels and local rain fall last time the lake filled?
eyre
I think it is downhill to lake Eyre
Lake Eyre
Last full in 1974, as far as I can tell from Google. We need an old fogey to tell us what the river was like then, I wasn't even born. :)
Going low
I'm thinking 0.4 I know it's low but I can't help but think that. 06 was a curse, if it's that low agin this year I won't be sliding into my Multisport.
cut off?
Was there a cut off for guesses?? Currently I am winning with what now seems like a rather ambitious guess of 0.7 and I'm not keen to see my glory stolen by people basing their water level estimates on actual FORECASTS and DATA or anything other than just pure luck.
I have a vague memory of some rules floating around but not the patience to go looking for said rules . . . does anyone else remember?
If not, I am absolutely SURE that the cut off was the day after I made my guess. :-)
Edit: I see below that the Phantom picked 0.55. However since he has control over the site I'm not trusting that he hasn't changed that recently . . .
Elders saw 2008 coming
I see some of you have been using Elders recently and some even dismissing it.
I was watching this site in 2008 when we were all thinking it was going to be dry 6 weeks out.
Elders picked it spot on and the month of July was showing mostly green if not dark. And look what happened! We had to walk around Katrine!
My money stays with them and predict an average level of 0.9
Dismissing Elders
Since I assume you're talking about me - I'm not dismissing Elders, I'm saying you have to read it as the data it's actually presenting instead of reading more into it.
Elders makes no predictions of rainfall totals, just the probability of rainfall events. A high likelihood of drizzle will show the same colour as the tail end of a cyclone. Also, as I said in the other thread, the central wheatbelt is a large area and rain somewhere in the region may not be where we want it.
Finally, predicting rainfall out to 28 days based on long-range pressure-system cycles is...an interesting concept. I think there are much better short-term models available, and Elders' 28-day forecast is as much wishful thinking as accurate forecasting.
Pilbara Paddler on Millennium?
Hey Pilbara paddler, did you recently buy a Millennium off some Rookie south of the river?
Millennium
No but you do know me! WHA HA HA! The Joys of changing your Tag!
Rookie dials up 1.68
Well already I can't remember or find my prediction of a week or so ago ... so now it is officially
1.68m
Why, because bigger water is way more fun, and I need the extra flow to push my sorry butt through the last 30km!
Ski Girl - Cott: 0.6m because I'd be spewing if the surf was good and I was stuck inland paddling a plastic boat down a rocky creek!
Edit 1st July - Was that m or cm?
Big Call
I've gone with the big call: Big Water (1.5-3.0), good for big hearts, big boats and a big weekend!
Big enough call?
For the record, I'll say 1.8 on the Sunday.
Cheers,
WP.
and also
WP at 1.8 you would also need big . . . Are you going to do the race this year?
Never say never
Now that would be a really 'Big Call'.
I'm a never-say-never type of paddler, and I did my first Avon on about a weeks worth of training. However the chances of getting back for this year are slim.
Cheers,
WP.
ocean paddler has a guess
1.5m off Cott. Oh sorry, Avon River. 0.7. You really should all convert to ocean paddling, the water is pretty reliable there. Except Juffy and Fiasco who aren't cool enough to paddle skis.
I vote 1.5
Well, I'm an optimist. And because I'm not paddling the water levels will probably be pretty good. (Although the one year I paddled was HUGE water, so not sure how that works).
98 in a 515
I heard you got a ride and did very little paddling!
Optimism
I'm going to go with 1.15 - late rains will bump the river up to something decent, but they won't be sustained enough to affect BoM's 3-month party-pooper outlooks.
Use this comment thread to record your guess
After voting above, use this comment thread to tell exactly what height you are picking. Once a particular height has 'gone', choose something else. Closest to the mark wins a prize of such unspeakable value, we can't possibly reveal yet what it might be.
Phantom picks 0.55. A disappointment to his diehard big water fans, I realise.
1.1m
Cause Juffy's usually right ;-)
1.2
because it's what I'd like